Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Bakken, crude oil, energy, IEA, IEA forecast, OECD, oil price predictions, oil supply, OPEC, peak oil, refining capacity, shale oil, tight oil
IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: ANE, China, China oil consumption, China oil imports, Chindia, crude oil, peak oil, The Yergin Gap, westtexas, Yergin
“China is importing an increasing amount of crude, which is the most crucial issue for the country’s energy supply,” said Zhang during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference
And the most crucial issue for the world’s energy supply too.
One way to look at it is that we in the west are being outbid by people in Asia for available oil exports. The price is high because if it were any lower people would want to consume more than can currently be produced.
Filed under: maps | Tags: bitumen, crude oil, Enbridge, environment, Exxon, oil sands, oil spill, oil transportation, pegasus, pegasus line, pipeline rupture oil, tar sands
The Pegasus line through Arkansas is spewing its contents into a subdivision.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, crude oil, Cushing, James Hamilton, peak oil, Seaway pipeline, spread, WTI
Blue is Brent, black is WTI, green is the spread between them.
A relatively recent phenomenon explained by James Hamilton:
West Texas Intermediate is a particular grade of crude oil whose price is usually quoted in terms of delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent is a very similar crude from Europe’s North Sea. As similar products, you’d expect them to sell for close to the same price, and up until 2010 they usually did. But an increase in production in Canada and the central U.S. combined with a decrease in U.S. consumption has led to a surplus of oil in the central U.S. This overwhelmed existing infrastructure for cheap transportation of crude from Cushing to the coast, causing a big spread to develop between the prices of WTI and Brent.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2013 oil price, Brent, crack spread, crude oil, EIA, energy, gas prices, oil price predictions, refinery profits, transportation, WTI
Always kind of funny. Flat-line forever.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Asjylyn Loder, Bakken, cornucopianism, crude oil, fracking, hydraulic fracturing, lies about fracking, Marcellus, North Dakota, oil extraction, peak oil, PR, propaganda, shale oil, techno-worship, technology, tight gas, tight oil, United States oil production
America’s latest oil rush was spurred by new technology that has made drilling faster, cheaper and better at unleashing oil from rock formations,…
That is false. Fracking (the oil guys always called it ‘fracing’) is old technology. Many decades old. But it’s an expensive way to get oil, relatively speaking. So it hasn’t been prudent to frack/frac for shale oil until the overall situation reached a certain point where the price of a barrel of crude was likely to remain above the cost of extraction. In other words, the fracking boom in the U.S. does not signal the death of Peak Oil. It is in fact part and parcel of a new era wherein cheap oil is a memory, a much more expensive era in energy. Perhaps that is why the misinformation campaign has been in overdrive.
via Asjylyn Loder, “American Oil Growing Most Since First Well Signals Independence,” Bloomberg..
Spreading disinformation through the media is even older technology.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Bakken, crude oil, demand destruction, energy, fracking, IEA, KSA, mbd, oil consumption, oil production, Our Finite World, refinery gain, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian oil production, shale gas, shale oil, tight gas, tight oil, Tvberg, Tverberg, unconventional oil, US oil production, WEO, World Energy Outlook
The happy talk on future production is crazier than ever in the latest IEA World Energy Outlook, but there are also some stunningly pessimistic predictions buried inside. Wild!
For instance: The US will become number one oil producuh again and rediscover our lost oil-producing prowess with about 11 million barrels/day (Yay!) — which must mean Saudi Arabia won’t approach IEA’s previous prediction for that country of roughly 15 mbd output (Ooof). And the predicted exporter status of the US (Yay!) relies as much on a huge drop in consumption as it does on increases in production (Ooof). So it’s a bit of a sad day in IEA land, where consumption always went up, up, up.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides unrealistically high oil forecasts in its new 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEO). It claims, among other things, that the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030.
Figure 1. Author’s interpretation of IEA Forecast of Future US Oil Production under “New Policies” Scenario, based on information provided in IEA’s 2012 World Energy Outlook.
Figure 1 shows that this increase comes solely from the expected rise in tight oil production and natural gas liquids. The idea that we will become an exporter in later years occurs despite falling production, because “demand” will drop so much.
Note that IEA and other maniacs add NGLs, biodiesel and even ‘refinery gain’ to the US oil production number, in a crude attempt to fool y’all.
Filed under: maps | Tags: aircraft carriers, amphibious warship, crude oil, en route, energy, Iran, middle-east, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, the Great Game
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: crude oil, demand growth, demand plateau, energy, OECD, oil consumption, oil demand, oil demand forecast, OPEC, Peak Demand, peak oil
“Demand in the OECD is in structural decline and we’re not expecting that to change,” he said, adding that the IEA’s forecasts do take into account recent weaker economic activity in the Asia-Pacific region.
According to the report, which contains the IEA’s first forecasts for 2013, global oil demand will be 1.1% higher than 2012, averaging 90.9 million barrels a day.
The forecasts are more bullish than reports earlier this week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, both of whom projected slower global oil demand growth in 2013 of 730,000 barrels a day and 800,000 barrels a day respectively.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: American oil production, crude oil, crude oil production, Econbrowser, energy, James Hamilton, oil production, peak oil, Texas oil production, Texas Railroad Commission, tight oil, transportation, westtexas
A historical perspective.
via Econbrowser and James Hamilton: