Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Track Record

Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:

Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61

[...]

So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …

via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.



The Bottleneck

pipeexpandeia

Via EIA:

This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version.



EIA price predictions

Always kind of funny. Flat-line forever.

eiagaspricechart



EIA predicts current rise in U.S. crude oil production will peak at 7.5 million barrels per day

7.54 mbd of crude in 2019. According to the EIA’s “AEO Table Browser:”

AEO Table Browser – Energy Information Administration.

See also: THE AMAZING RED MOUND, BAKKEN DEVELOPMENT BY COUNTY, EPA FRACKING AIR POLLUTION RULES, MONTANA CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, LIVESTOCK IN FRACKING REGIONS



Montana Crude Oil Production

Appears to have peaked. See, the Bakken formation is in Montana and North Dakota.

montanaoilproduction
click to enlarge

via EIA: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpmt2&f=m



Availability of gasoline in New York City metropolitan area

via EIA: http://www.eia.gov/special/disruptions/hurricane/sandy/gasoline_updates.cfm



Gasoline stocks 1981-2012

U.S. stocks of finished gasoline, via EIA.


click to enlarge



Chinese coal production

The rise in global production over the past decade is almost entirely due to Chinese production…

via the EIA via http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9485



History of Texas Crude Oil Production

According to the Railroad Commission of Texas.

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/production/oilwellcounts.php

Some individuals recently noting the difference between RRC and EIA production numbers. From a comment by Jeffrey Brown:

Total US Crude Oil Production (EIA, mbpd):

2002: 5.746
2003: 5.681
2004: 5.419
2005: 5.178
2006: 5.102
2007: 5.064
2008: 4.950
2009: 5.361
2010: 5.476
2011: 5.662

Total US Crude Oil Production, using RRC data for Texas, instead of EIA (Gap Between the two data sets):

2002: 5.615 (+131,000 bpd)
2003: 5.548 (+133,000)
2004: 5.303 (+116,000)
2005: 5.059 (+119,000)
2006: 4.948 (+154,000)
2007: 4.898 (+166,000)
2008: 4.813 (+137,000)
2009: 5.199 (+162,000)
2010: 5.285 (+194,000)
2011: 5.324 (+338,000)

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9191#comment-893345



Resistance

A new fire in the North Sea; blowout in Russia; hacking in Iran; pipeline problems in Turkey; accelerated violence in South Sudan… What I miss?




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