Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



Gini coefficient
November 3, 2012, 15:41
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

Gini coefficient is commonly used as a measure of inequality of income or wealth…. For OECD countries, in the late 2000s, considering the effect of taxes and transfer payments, the income Gini coefficient ranged between 0.24 to 0.49, with Slovenia the lowest and Chile the highest.

via Gini coefficient – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.


click to enlarge

Clinton you old cad!



Structural Decline

Interesting times.

“Demand in the OECD is in structural decline and we’re not expecting that to change,” he said, adding that the IEA’s forecasts do take into account recent weaker economic activity in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the report, which contains the IEA’s first forecasts for 2013, global oil demand will be 1.1% higher than 2012, averaging 90.9 million barrels a day.

The forecasts are more bullish than reports earlier this week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, both of whom projected slower global oil demand growth in 2013 of 730,000 barrels a day and 800,000 barrels a day respectively.

via RIGZONE – IEA: 2013 Oil Demand Growth Higher On Muted Recovery.



Weird Discrepancy

…between official Russian oil production numbers and JODI numbers.

via http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/05/20/is-russian-oil-production-plummeting/



U.S. exempts 11 countries from Iran sanctions

As South Korea buys more…

In contrast to Japan, South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest oil importer, increased its imports from Iran in 2011 by 20 percent. It’s refiners have signed deals to import a little more crude again from Iran in 2012.

South Africa’s energy minister said last week he hoped to have a plan by the end of May for replacing Iran supplies, which currently make up a quarter of its crude imports.

But reflecting a problem for several countries, Turkey’s energy minister, Taner Yildiz, told reporters on Wednesday the country could not stop buying Iran crude unless alternative oil sources were found.

via U.S. exempts 11 countries from Iran sanctions; China, India exposed – chicagotribune.com.



Total Liquid Fuel Consumption

Sam Foucher chart via Chris Nelder’s latest:

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/energy-futurist/oil-demand-shift-asia-takes-over/400?tag=search-river



Demand triage

Chris Nelder explains a critical dilemma facing American consumers. As total available oil exports decrease (at a rate that would bring them to absolute zero in about four years), inefficient westerners will be outbid by the new Asian “middle class” for these diminishing supplies.

Of course, exports can fall to zero in theory only, not in practice. In reality, high prices will kill the most inefficient, unsubsidized demand first—in the U.S. and Europe. Next, demand will be curbed in net exporting countries, first via the removal of domestic fuel subsidies, and then by world prices. The demand of the four billion people in Asia will be the last to go because they use it most efficiently.

via Oil demand shift: Asia takes over | SmartPlanet.

Translation: The fat gets trimmed. The fat is here.



Sometimes you have to go to Canada to find people who understand the concept of depletion

Like this Eric Reguly character of the Globe and Mail:

Why hasn’t the high price triggered a production surge? The biggie, it seems, is that the non-OPEC countries are simply not up to the job. As Barclays points out, non-OPEC supply last year landed at a full one million barrels a day less than forecast by the International Energy Agency. The North Sea (whose production is shared by Britain and Norway) continued its terminal decline. Brazil and Azerbaijan were also the scenes of production disappointments.

Meanwhile, OPEC, dominated by Saudi Arabia, is sweating exceedingly hard. OPEC production volumes are at three-year highs, to the point that the cartel has only about 1.6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, and still prices are climbing.

via CTV News | All the signs point to a falling oil price – except supply.



Sudan energy production through 2009
January 30, 2012, 10:10
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Graph from IEA (pdf):



2011: ‘Odd year’ for oil
January 7, 2012, 15:00
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

He said, “Any disappointments on the demand side have on average been outweighed by disappointments on the supply side, and in particular the spectacular deceleration in non-OPEC supply after the first quarter started off on a strong note with non-OPEC supply in January increasing by almost 1 million b/d, continuing the momentum seen across the fourth quarter of 2010.” Despite strong growth in production of unconventional liquids, non-OPEC supply growth virtually ground to a halt. Horsnell blamed underperformance in the North Sea, technical issues in Brazil and Azerbaijan, decline rates in China, fires in Canada, strikes in Kazakhstan, and geopolitical disruptions in Sudan, Yemen, and Syria.

“The only bright spot has been the US where the momentum in oil shales has continued to tick higher, helping offset some of the weakness from the rest of the world,” he said.

via 2011: 'Odd year' for oil – Oil & Gas Journal.

Could be what Peak Oil looks like.




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