Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Track Record

Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:

Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61

[…]

So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …

via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.



What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



EIA price predictions

Always kind of funny. Flat-line forever.

eiagaspricechart



US oil consumption and oil price in Brent

Via Stuart Staniford’s Early Warning:

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/04/us-oil-consumption-and-oil-prices.html

However, it’s also worth noting that the price required to make consumption decline has increased over time. In 2006-2007, prices of around $70 were enough to make oil consumption flatten and then decline. However, in late 2009 and 2010, similar prices obtained while consumption continued to rise. It took the rise to over $100 in spring 2011 to get consumption to start to decline again.



Save this chart for a good laugh later on

Citi analysts have been calling an end to America’s energy problems and for the appearance of a 900-foot-tall golden unicorn named Darren.



EIA’s latest oil price prediction

Via http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm

Consider in light of their historical track record, which has … not been good.



Juuust a bit outside

This was the EIA’s thought on future oil prices just nine years ago:

From an article on EIA predictions at Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/363431-flawed-oil-forecasts-hide-continued-upward-pressure-on-prices




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