Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, driving, oil prices, peak oil, vehicle miles traveled, Vmt
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1987-2012
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, Fatthouh, futures prices, James Hamilton, Kilian, Mahadeva, NYMEX, oil prices, speculation, spot prices, WTI
A paper by Fatthouh, Kilian and Mahadeva (pdf)
Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, crude oil, crude oil prices, EIA, energy, Energy Information Administration, NYMEX, oil price, oil price predictions, oil prices, peak oil, WTI
Via
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm
Consider in light of their historical track record, which has … not been good.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: China, energy, gas prices, Natural Born Drillers, oil prices, Paul Krugman, peak oil
…Although he does make other good points, like Yergin, in service of his argument of the day.
…Oil prices are up because of rising demand from China and other emerging economies, and more recently because of war scares in the Middle East; these forces easily outweigh any downward pressure on prices from rising U.S. production.
via Natural Born Drillers – NYTimes.com.
