Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



NPR repeats false fracking narratives

As NPR’s Tom Gjelten reports:

“Petroleum engineers have always known about the untapped underground oil in the United States, but it was unreachable, trapped in tight shale rock. Then the engineers figured out how to crack the rock. Hydraulic fracturing — fracking — got that ‘tight oil’ finally flowing in places like North Dakota.”

via Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR.

Wrong, Tom. The tight oil has been ‘reachable’ for several decades, it was just such an expensive process that it made no sense to do it when oil was cheap — a money-losing proposition. Now, all the cheap oil is gone, and out comes the ‘unconventional’ oil.

Gjelten also said that the decline in oil consumption in the US was due to efficiency (check the VMT chart Tom). There was no mention of depletion of existing fields, or the striking decline rate of fracked shale wells. And he reported that cheaper oil is just over the horizon.

Would it hurt Mr. Gjelten to do just a tiny bit of research on the topic of his reports so he doesn’t sound like a complete idiot?



Hurricane Isaac Activity Statistics

Updated August 30. Almost all of Gulf shut down.

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 a.m. CDT today, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 509 production platforms, equivalent to 85.4 percent of the 596 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Production platforms are the structures located offshore from which oil and natural gas are produced. Unlike drilling rigs, which typically move from location to location, production facilities remain in the same location throughout a project’s duration.

Personnel have been evacuated from 50 rigs, equivalent to 65.79 percent of the 76 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. Rigs can include several types of self-contained offshore drilling facilities including jackup rigs, submersibles and semisubmersibles.

via BSEE Hurricane Isaac Activity Statistics: August 30, 2012 | BSEE.



Transitory
April 25, 2012, 10:18
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , ,


Resistance

A new fire in the North Sea; blowout in Russia; hacking in Iran; pipeline problems in Turkey; accelerated violence in South Sudan… What I miss?



Save this chart for a good laugh later on

Citi analysts have been calling an end to America’s energy problems and for the appearance of a 900-foot-tall golden unicorn named Darren.



Chinese Oil Production

From a comment by “Darwinian” on the Oil Drum.



UK Oil production quietly plummeting

For any modern nation, a 22% decline in oil production would be significant over the course of a decade. A 22% drop over a mere 12 months ought to be front-page news, yet this radical decline has passed relatively unnoticed.

via UK Oil: Plummeting production vs media inattention | Energy Bulletin.



Daniel Yergin is a shame

Everything Yergin says here is true. He gives the impression of someone who chooses his words carefully. He won a Pulitzer and wrote two giant books about oil. But he somehow always leaves out half the story. Just doesn’t get it or pretends it doesn’t exist.

Yergin is a self-described optimist who believes human ingenuity (and higher prices) will produce as much oil as mankind would ever want or need. Like many of his ilk, he emphasizes various sources of supply that are on the verge of coming on line, and new sources of supply like the Bakken that are adding to existing supply. He mentions “disruptions” in supply, and indeed there are many of those. Disruptions are always on the verge of being restored to their rightful levels, you see. What he and his cornucopian brethren never mention is the ongoing natural depletion of existing giant oil fields. And his predictions never seem to take this depletion into account — which means his predictions (and those of his firm IHS CERA) have been absolutely laughable. I mean, they will make you lol those old predictions. The existing world of oil makes a lot more sense if you take into account the phenomenon of depletion; unfortunately the future looks a lot more bleak.

“Pulitzer Prize-winning Daniel Yergin” gets trotted out repeatedly, because his blind spot on depletion is quite useful to the contingent that thrives on the false belief that excessive regulation is throttling production in the US. And there is oh so much cash behind that fakery. Yergin’s paycheck depends on his not acknowledging depletion. The whole circus is really quite shameful, isn’t it?

Here he is in the WSJ optimistically listing factors that could keep the price of oil down, counteracting tensions with Iran. Optimism! Let’s see: New supply in the US, and various potential new sources of supply around the world. Check. Also, reductions in demand. Check. He doesn’t mention that “new supply” would have to amount to a Saudi Arabia’s worth every few years just to make up for ongoing depletion. In fact, he doesn’t mention depletion at all. Well done, Daniel.

New petroleum supplies could come into the market over the year from a variety of sources—from Iraq and Angola to Libya and Colombia. And notably, 300,000 barrels per day or more from the United States—primarily from North Dakota and Texas and from a rebound in off-shore production.

The other offset could come from reductions in demand. U.S. gasoline consumption so far this year is down over last year. China’s new economic growth target of 7.5%—down significantly from the 10% or so of recent years—would mean lower growth in its petroleum consumption. Of course, a rebound in global economic growth would increase demand, not only in China but in the U.S., Japan and Europe.

via Daniel Yergin: What's Behind Rising Gas Prices? – WSJ.com.



Senator Schumer wants Saudi Arabia to talk down oil prices

But Senator — to what degree will desperate-sounding ‘comments’ from US officials like yourself counteract those hypothetical emphatic promises? Seems like Shoom is scrambling for relevance.

Schumer called on Saudi Arabia to repeat its intention to make up for supply losses, arguing the comments will drive down gas prices, which are tethered to global oil prices.

“If the markets believe this is real, the price will come down even further. So we are asking the Saudis to repeat this promise,” Schumer said.

“The more explicit they are, the more emphatic they are, the more they ensure the markets that they are for real here,” he continued, “the more the markets will calm down more permanently and the more the price will come down.”

via Schumer: Saudi Arabia's plan to increase oil supply will lower gas prices – The Hill's E2-Wire.




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