Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



Structural Decline

Interesting times.

“Demand in the OECD is in structural decline and we’re not expecting that to change,” he said, adding that the IEA’s forecasts do take into account recent weaker economic activity in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the report, which contains the IEA’s first forecasts for 2013, global oil demand will be 1.1% higher than 2012, averaging 90.9 million barrels a day.

The forecasts are more bullish than reports earlier this week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, both of whom projected slower global oil demand growth in 2013 of 730,000 barrels a day and 800,000 barrels a day respectively.

via RIGZONE – IEA: 2013 Oil Demand Growth Higher On Muted Recovery.



Weird Discrepancy

…between official Russian oil production numbers and JODI numbers.

via http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/05/20/is-russian-oil-production-plummeting/



U.S. exempts 11 countries from Iran sanctions

As South Korea buys more…

In contrast to Japan, South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest oil importer, increased its imports from Iran in 2011 by 20 percent. It’s refiners have signed deals to import a little more crude again from Iran in 2012.

South Africa’s energy minister said last week he hoped to have a plan by the end of May for replacing Iran supplies, which currently make up a quarter of its crude imports.

But reflecting a problem for several countries, Turkey’s energy minister, Taner Yildiz, told reporters on Wednesday the country could not stop buying Iran crude unless alternative oil sources were found.

via U.S. exempts 11 countries from Iran sanctions; China, India exposed – chicagotribune.com.



Sometimes you have to go to Canada to find people who understand the concept of depletion

Like this Eric Reguly character of the Globe and Mail:

Why hasn’t the high price triggered a production surge? The biggie, it seems, is that the non-OPEC countries are simply not up to the job. As Barclays points out, non-OPEC supply last year landed at a full one million barrels a day less than forecast by the International Energy Agency. The North Sea (whose production is shared by Britain and Norway) continued its terminal decline. Brazil and Azerbaijan were also the scenes of production disappointments.

Meanwhile, OPEC, dominated by Saudi Arabia, is sweating exceedingly hard. OPEC production volumes are at three-year highs, to the point that the cartel has only about 1.6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, and still prices are climbing.

via CTV News | All the signs point to a falling oil price – except supply.



Friedman thinks US could soon export crude oil and join OPEC

That’s what oil exporters do! Yup, we’re going to frack our production up about 200% over its current level, and get more efficient of course, and, of course, “do it right,” and then we’ll start exporting crude to those suckers in Japan and Europe. But first –

But all of this depends on an understanding between the oil industry and the environmentalists. If President Obama could pull that off, it would be a huge contribution to America’s security, economy and environment.

Yeah, that’s it. If we can just come to an understanding with the environmentalists, it’s OPEC time!

Friedman is unbelievably bad sometimes. Other times, believably so.

via http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/opinion/sunday/friedman-a-good-question.html

You may also intensely dislike: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN IS UNSUSTAINABLE



2011: ‘Odd year’ for oil
January 7, 2012, 15:00
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

He said, “Any disappointments on the demand side have on average been outweighed by disappointments on the supply side, and in particular the spectacular deceleration in non-OPEC supply after the first quarter started off on a strong note with non-OPEC supply in January increasing by almost 1 million b/d, continuing the momentum seen across the fourth quarter of 2010.” Despite strong growth in production of unconventional liquids, non-OPEC supply growth virtually ground to a halt. Horsnell blamed underperformance in the North Sea, technical issues in Brazil and Azerbaijan, decline rates in China, fires in Canada, strikes in Kazakhstan, and geopolitical disruptions in Sudan, Yemen, and Syria.

“The only bright spot has been the US where the momentum in oil shales has continued to tick higher, helping offset some of the weakness from the rest of the world,” he said.

via 2011: 'Odd year' for oil – Oil & Gas Journal.

Could be what Peak Oil looks like.



BP CEO Dudley Scared of High Oil Prices
December 6, 2011, 20:02
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=113132&hmpn=1



Who buys Iranian oil
December 6, 2011, 17:01
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

From http://www.eia.gov/cabs/iran/Full.html

If the EU stops buying oil from Iran, that would seem to benefit China, Turkey and Japan.



Energy Export Databrowser
December 5, 2011, 19:34
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy…

THE ENERGY EXPORT DATABROWSER




Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 80 other followers