Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: air cargo, air traffic, air travel, aviation, economic activity, economics, energy, jet fuel, peak oil, recession, transportation
Trending down.
Via Macronomics:
Macronomics: Air Traffic is pointing to additional economic activity weakness.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Bakken, crude oil, energy, IEA, IEA forecast, OECD, oil price predictions, oil supply, OPEC, peak oil, refining capacity, shale oil, tight oil
IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.
via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Bakken, enegy, frack, fracking, IEA, oil journalism, oil production, oil shale, oil supply, Peak Demand, peak oil, shale oil, tight oil, Tom Gjelten
As NPR’s Tom Gjelten reports:
“Petroleum engineers have always known about the untapped underground oil in the United States, but it was unreachable, trapped in tight shale rock. Then the engineers figured out how to crack the rock. Hydraulic fracturing — fracking — got that ‘tight oil’ finally flowing in places like North Dakota.”
via Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR.
Wrong, Tom. The tight oil has been ‘reachable’ for several decades, it was just such an expensive process that it made no sense to do it when oil was cheap — a money-losing proposition. Now, all the cheap oil is gone, and out comes the ‘unconventional’ oil.
Gjelten also said that the decline in oil consumption in the US was due to efficiency (check the VMT chart Tom). There was no mention of depletion of existing fields, or the striking decline rate of fracked shale wells. And he reported that cheaper oil is just over the horizon.
Would it hurt Mr. Gjelten to do just a tiny bit of research on the topic of his reports so he doesn’t sound like a complete idiot?
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: carbon, carbon credits, Chris Martenson, CO2, coal, energy, LNG, natural gas exports, Obama, peak oil
Chris Martenson, smart about energy, busts the O administration for its disingenuous claims about lowering carbon emissions with natural gas:
To claim credit for lowered carbon emissions due to natural gas and then also support the idea of exporting LNG (where fully 25% of the base energy is combusted in order to simply liquefy the product) is hypocritical. These are two ideas that work against each other. Either you use natural gas wisely and efficiently as you move away from coal resources and claim a carbon credit for these actions, or you support throwing 25% of natural gas’ energy right into the atmosphere just to cool it for transport.
So it’s a fallacy to imply that exporting natural gas will help lower carbon emissions. In all honesty, total emissions will most likely be higher than otherwise – because let’s be realistic; the most likely path is for humanity to burn up all the natural gas and then burn up the coal next.
Further, where the U.S. carbon emissions have gone down due to less coal being burned, that happy circumstance resulted in Europe doing exactly the opposite:
[...]
Does natural gas help to lower carbon emissions? No, it merely pushes the carbon emissions elsewhere while the U.S. feasts on relatively cheap natural gas domestically. The only thing that lowers carbon emissions is NOT burning coal, natural gas, or petroleum – collectively.
via The Obama Administration's Policy on LNG Makes No Energy Sense | Peak Prosperity.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: vehicle sales, peak oil, Peak Demand, light vehicle sales, cash for clunkers, FRED, auto sales
In the US that is. Includes large trucks.
click to enlarge
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Saudi Arabia, energy, peak oil, KSA, Saudi Arabian oil consumption, Aramco, Prince Faisal, Saudi oil production, Saudi production capacity, Naimi, Saudi Oil Minister
Even in a totalitarian government they can’t get their stories together.
“Saudi Arabia’s national production management scheme is set to increase total capacity to 15 million barrels per day and have an export potential of 10 [million] barrels per day by 2020,” Prince Faisal, a former Saudi ambassador to the US and UK said in a speech at the Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs of Harvard University. The speech was delivered last week and posted on the centre’s website late Monday.
The prince clarified his position in an email on Tuesday. “Saudi consumption may reach five million barrels of oil by then [2020], hence the production capacity of fifteen million barrels,” is required to maintain country’s export potential, he said.
Saudi Arabia would be lucky to go past production of 9 million barrels a day by 2020 and, “we don’t see anything like 15 million barrels a day before 2030, 2040,” said Naimi in an appearance at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC Tuesday.
via Rift emerges over Saudi oil policy | GulfNews.com.
Notice in this article and others how any potential increase or decrease in Saudi oil production is always portrayed as a matter of policy, not geology.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: energy, gasoline production, Peak Demand, peak oil, transportation, US oil consumption, vehicle miles traveled, VMT< DOT
No coherent explanation for the way the years are labeled across the bottom however.
Data through February.
via (pdf) http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/13febtvt/13febtvt.pdf
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Destination Cities, employment, fracking, Houston, National Migration Trend Report, peak oil, Texas, U-Haul, unemployment
…
PHOENIX (April 12, 2013) — U-Haul International, Inc., today released the results of the annual 2012 U-Haul National Migration Trend Report, titled “The U-Haul 2012 Top 50 U.S. Destination Cities.” According to moving data reflective of nationwide statistics for calendar year 2012, families moving to Houston took the No. 1 spot again, for the fourth year in a row.
via U-Haul: About: U-Haul Names Houston as Top 2012 U.S. Destination City.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: ANE, China, China oil consumption, China oil imports, Chindia, crude oil, peak oil, The Yergin Gap, westtexas, Yergin
“China is importing an increasing amount of crude, which is the most crucial issue for the country’s energy supply,” said Zhang during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference
And the most crucial issue for the world’s energy supply too.
One way to look at it is that we in the west are being outbid by people in Asia for available oil exports. The price is high because if it were any lower people would want to consume more than can currently be produced.
via China depends more on overseas oil |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: carbon dioxide emissions, China, Chindia, climate, CO2, Econbrowser, James Hamilton, natural gas liquids, NGLs, oil consumption, Peak Demand, peak oil, total liquids, transportation
And it’s worth remembering why that happened– we didn’t have a choice. Global field production of crude oil (excluding natural gas liquids, which are not used as transportation fuel) stagnated at about 74 million barrels/day between 2005 and 2008. It is up a couple of million barrels since then, but more than 100% of this increase has been consumed by China alone, forcing the U.S. and other countries to reduce our oil consumption.
via James Hamilton: Econbrowser: Declining U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.
