Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Technology versus Luck

What if our technology had more to do with luck than our luck had to do with technology?

James Hamilton:

My view is that with these new fields and new technology, we’ll see further increases in U.S. and world production of oil for the next several years. But, unlike many other economists, I do not expect that to continue for much beyond the next decade. We like to think that the reason we enjoy our high standard of living is because we have been so clever at figuring out how to use the world’s available resources. But we should not dismiss the possibility that there may also have been a nontrivial contribution of simply having been quite lucky to have found an incredibly valuable raw material that was relatively easy to obtain for about a century and a half.

via Economics in Action : Issue 7 : November 15, 2012 : Exhaustible Resources and Economic Growth.

Yeah.. Don’t dismiss that possibility.



Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says Rech
January 5, 2012, 11:57
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Q: What do you foresee? Let’s begin with the non-OPEC producers (which represent 58% of production and 23% of global reserves).

Rech: Outside OPEC, things are clear: of 40 million barrels per day (mb/d) of conventional petroleum extracted from existing fields, we face an annual decline on the order of 1 to 2 mb/d.

via Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency | Oil Man.

Roughly 5% annual decline in conventional supply ongoing.



Shale gas drilling

From a detailed article at Rigzone. http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=113890&hmpn=1



Roubini has his eye on Brazil
December 17, 2011, 09:22
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More confusion

Louise Basinese, Wall Street Daily. The confusion about refinery product exports is getting brutal.

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2011/12/16/peak-oil/



Lying or confused, part 2

http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/daniel-nestlerode-as-us-becomes-a-net-energy-exporter-greenenergy-push-on-last-legs-951653/

From statecollege.com, Dec. 4, 2011.

very quietly, I guess.

The author Dan Nestlerode is apparently the Director of Research at his firm. Ouch Dan!



Exxon predicts
December 10, 2011, 06:02
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

http://www.buffalonews.com/business/article666169.ece



EIA natural gas flow chart 2010
December 8, 2011, 11:58
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From: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/diagram3.cfm



Even though we have to import massive portion of our energy fix …
December 8, 2011, 10:00
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… the oil and gas companies will export overseas if they can make a buck off of it when prices ‘collapse’ in the US. This pretty much fracks the whole idea of drilling for ‘energy independence.’ The only thing independent here is the oil/gas company.

Ross Kelly, “Conoco Studying North America’s Gas Export Potential,” Rigzone, Dec. 8, 2011



Who buys Iranian oil
December 6, 2011, 17:01
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From http://www.eia.gov/cabs/iran/Full.html

If the EU stops buying oil from Iran, that would seem to benefit China, Turkey and Japan.




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