Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Criminal investigation into runaway train
July 9, 2013, 23:17
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

Investigators say they’ve recovered the “black box” that should help determine what happened before a Montreal, Maine & Atlantic Railway Ltd. train carrying crude oil derailed and exploded in a Quebec town, killing at least five people.

The train with 72 carloads of crude oil crashed and burst into flames early Saturday near the center of Lac-Megantic, in the southeastern part of the province, forcing the evacuation of 2,000 people, police said. Forty people remain unaccounted for and a criminal investigation is under way.

via Black Box Recovered in Fatal Quebec Oil Train Explosion – Bloomberg.



Track Record

Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:

Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61

[...]

So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …

via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.



What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ‘em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



NPR repeats false fracking narratives

As NPR’s Tom Gjelten reports:

“Petroleum engineers have always known about the untapped underground oil in the United States, but it was unreachable, trapped in tight shale rock. Then the engineers figured out how to crack the rock. Hydraulic fracturing — fracking — got that ‘tight oil’ finally flowing in places like North Dakota.”

via Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR.

Wrong, Tom. The tight oil has been ‘reachable’ for several decades, it was just such an expensive process that it made no sense to do it when oil was cheap — a money-losing proposition. Now, all the cheap oil is gone, and out comes the ‘unconventional’ oil.

Gjelten also said that the decline in oil consumption in the US was due to efficiency (check the VMT chart Tom). There was no mention of depletion of existing fields, or the striking decline rate of fracked shale wells. And he reported that cheaper oil is just over the horizon.

Would it hurt Mr. Gjelten to do just a tiny bit of research on the topic of his reports so he doesn’t sound like a complete idiot?



Fracking boom puts North Dakota hospitals in red

A less obvious form of corporate welfare.

The furious pace of oil exploration that has made North Dakota one of the healthiest economies in the country has had the opposite effect on the region’s health care providers. Swamped by uninsured laborers flocking to dangerous jobs, medical facilities in the area are sinking under skyrocketing debt, a flood of gruesome injuries and bloated business costs from the inflated economy.

via Boom in North Dakota Weighs Heavily on Health Care – NYTimes.com.

This post is an interesting companion to the one below.



30%

Rampant waste and environmental degradation have been part of the Bakken boom. The state doesn’t care about that, but it wants its taxes.

Helms estimates that about 30% of the gas produced in the state is flared, since development of takeaway infrastructure has not matched the pace of drilling.

Producers are currently allowed to flare gas for a year without paying royalties. The new bill would extend that tax-exempt period for two more years if an operator can collect at least 75% of the produced gas.

via N. Dakota tax bills pique industry interest – Upstreamonline.com.



Colorado Oil and Gas Association sues Longmont

This report in the NYT doesn’t mention that our governor Frackenlooper has all but joined the suit in an attempt to overrule the voters of Longmont. If he plays his Weasel Cards right he’ll be a cabinet member some day.

The lawsuit, filed on Monday by the Colorado Oil and Gas Association, seeks to overturn the ban on the contentious practice that passed by a wide margin last month in the northern Colorado city of Longmont. The measure, the first of its kind in the state, still allows oil and gas drilling within city limits, but it prohibits hydraulic fracturing, which has lifted energy production across the country but has raised concerns about air and water contamination.

via Suit Seeks to Overturn a City Drilling Ban in Longmont, Colorado – NYTimes.com.



Fracking is old technology

America’s latest oil rush was spurred by new technology that has made drilling faster, cheaper and better at unleashing oil from rock formations,…

That is false. Fracking (the oil guys always called it ‘fracing’) is old technology. Many decades old. But it’s an expensive way to get oil, relatively speaking. So it hasn’t been prudent to frack/frac for shale oil until the overall situation reached a certain point where the price of a barrel of crude was likely to remain above the cost of extraction. In other words, the fracking boom in the U.S. does not signal the death of Peak Oil. It is in fact part and parcel of a new era wherein cheap oil is a memory, a much more expensive era in energy. Perhaps that is why the misinformation campaign has been in overdrive.

via Asjylyn Loder, “American Oil Growing Most Since First Well Signals Independence,” Bloomberg..

Spreading disinformation through the media is even older technology.



Montana Crude Oil Production

Appears to have peaked. See, the Bakken formation is in Montana and North Dakota.

montanaoilproduction
click to enlarge

via EIA: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpmt2&f=m



Bakken Development by County

via a comment by Rune Likvern at the Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9648#comment-931584


click to enlarge

looks a little peaky…probably just a temporary hitch… don’t be alarmed…

Note: the Bakken shale is in Montana as well as North Dakota.




Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 80 other followers