Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


James Hamilton on Iranian oil embargo
January 15, 2012, 17:46
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The most likely outcome of an embargo on oil purchased from Iran is that the countries participating in the embargo buy less oil from Iran while other countries not participating in the embargo by more oil from Iran ([1], [2]). While this would produce some dislocations, if total world oil production doesn’t change, it would have little effect on either Iran or oil-consuming countries, and would basically be a symbolic gesture.

via Econbrowser: Iranian oil embargo.

But, Hamilton reminds us, if the embargo is successful, it will have a profound effect on the oil market.



Couldn’t help noticing that your “outlook” graph has a ditch in the middle
January 14, 2012, 14:53
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These projections are looking sillier and sillier in graphic form.

This is what Hope looks like via EIA:

Of course there is also a ditch over on the left side of the graph, which breeds hope for the future among fans of energy use. But we came out of that ditch with Alaskan and N. Sea oil, and more Saudi oil. This time, we expect cooked sand and “tight oil” to pull us out of the total energy ditch?



Oil price predictions: EIA sees 2012 average slightly higher
December 22, 2011, 23:24
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It’s that time of year. Let’s get the ball rolling with an official govt. forecast. We’re getting established over 100/barrel here.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/



Consumption still declining
December 21, 2011, 20:16
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…in the U.S. Down to 18.5 million barrels per day.

WEEKLY PETROLEUM SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING DEC. 16 — EIA http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

“Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged nearly 18.5 million barrels per day, down by 5.8 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, down by 4.7 percent from the same period last year.”



U.S. energy overview (total BTU’s)
December 10, 2011, 08:32
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For the people (especially journalists) who have written that the US is now a “net energy exporter.”

From EIA data: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf (pdf)



EIA natural gas flow chart 2010
December 8, 2011, 11:58
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From: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/diagram3.cfm




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