Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: deepwater drilling, EIA, fracking, IEA, liquid fuel production, oil price, oil price predictions, oil production, Peak Demand, peak oil, refinery gain, shale oil, tight gas, tight oil
Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:
Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61
[…]
So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …
via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Bakken, crude oil, energy, IEA, IEA forecast, OECD, oil price predictions, oil supply, OPEC, peak oil, refining capacity, shale oil, tight oil
IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ’em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.
via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2013 oil price, Brent, crack spread, crude oil, EIA, energy, gas prices, oil price predictions, refinery profits, transportation, WTI
Always kind of funny. Flat-line forever.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, energy demand, North Sea, oil consumption, oil demand, oil price predictions, peak oil, the breaking point, US oil demand
Via Stuart Staniford’s Early Warning:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/04/us-oil-consumption-and-oil-prices.html
However, it’s also worth noting that the price required to make consumption decline has increased over time. In 2006-2007, prices of around $70 were enough to make oil consumption flatten and then decline. However, in late 2009 and 2010, similar prices obtained while consumption continued to rise. It took the rise to over $100 in spring 2011 to get consumption to start to decline again.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Citi, Citigroup, energy, fracking, hydraulic fracturing, oil price predictions, oil supply, oil supply predictions, peak oil
Citi analysts have been calling an end to America’s energy problems and for the appearance of a 900-foot-tall golden unicorn named Darren.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Brent, crude oil, crude oil prices, EIA, energy, Energy Information Administration, NYMEX, oil price, oil price predictions, oil prices, peak oil, WTI
Via http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm
Consider in light of their historical track record, which has … not been good.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: EIA, energy, historic price predictions, make-a me laugh, oil price predictions, peak oil, petroleum, Super Wrong, wrong
This was the EIA’s thought on future oil prices just nine years ago:
From an article on EIA predictions at Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/363431-flawed-oil-forecasts-hide-continued-upward-pressure-on-prices
