Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Ron Patterson Convinced that Peak oil is upon us now
December 23, 2015, 08:31
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , ,

Bottom line, I am more convinced than ever that 2015 will be the year world crude oil peaked.

Source: All Roads Lead To Peak Oil – Peak Oil BarrelPeak Oil Barrel



More Peak Driving

Continuation of recent trend suggesting American driving may have peaked.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/14martvt/figure1.cfm

vmtmarch2014



Jet Fuel

via the tweetbox



Oil Companies Spending More, Producing Less

via James Hamilton via WSJ: http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/01/big-oil-companies-spending-more-and-producing-less

costlyquestwsj
click to enlarge



That’s some tricky math

Attention news reporters, editors, producers and quacking heads: The US burns about 18.5 million barrels per day, and produces 7.7.

18.5 – 7.7 is 10.8.

These numbers are from the freakin EIA itself: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf

No wonder the Koreans are kicking our tails in math. We get reports like this, all over the internet and on NPR:

In October, for the first time since February 1995, the U.S. produced more crude oil than it imported, the Energy Information Administration said this week.

EIA, the Energy Department’s nonpartisan statistical arm, said U.S. crude oil production averaged 7.7 million barrels per day in October while 7.6 million barrels per day were imported.

via U.S. oil output tops imports for first time since 1995 – Andrew Restuccia – POLITICO.com.

Even if that were true, all it would mean is that we still have to import half the oil we burn. But we’re not there yet, and may never be (again).



Shell giving up on Colorado “oil shale”

Said spokesman Martin Skrtel, speaking at Shell’s headquarters in Den Hague, “It was always just a really stupid, non-starter of an idea. You’d have to be a scientific illiterate to believe that cooking “oil shale” to create crude oil could have a positive energy balance. Still, we thought we could buy off enough legislators to create, how should we say, a conducive fiscal atmosphere that would make the scheme a profit-maker for us. But now we have abandoned even those plans…”

Ha ha that was satire. What they really said was different:

A month after Royal Dutch Shell’s U.S. subsidiary said it would pursue its oil shale research project in Colorado while selling off other oil and gas assets, the company has reversed its decision.

“There’s been a shift in our oil shale project,” spokeswoman Carolyn Tucker said Tuesday.

“The energy market has evolved since Shell first started its oil shale research project in 1981. We plan to exit our Colorado oil shale research project in order to focus on other opportunities and producing assets in our broad global portfolio,” she said in an email.

“Our current focus is to work with staff and contractors as we safely and methodically stop research activities at the site,” she said.

The announcement regarding the closure of Shell’s oil shale research and development work comes as the company announces plans to put its assets on the market across the United States, including oil and gas assets in northwestern and southeastern Colorado.

Shell on Aug. 1 reported a 60 percent drop in second-quarter results — largely due to a $2 billion write-down of its North American shale assets due to “the latest insights from exploration and appraisal drilling results and production information.”

via Shell pulling out of Colorado oil shale research project – Denver Business Journal.



North Sea

Long peaked, declining rapidly and getting really expensive.

The sharp decline in production of oil and gas from under British waters is “worrying” industry leaders.

Trade body Oil and Gas UK says there is record investment this year of £13.5bn.

But its annual report on the industry’s economic impact highlights the sharp fall in output of 19% during 2011 and 14% in 2012.

It says the industry’s latest estimates of the continuing decline suggest a further fall of at least 8.5% during this year, with no recovery next year.

[…]

Because of challenging geology and unplanned shutdowns on offshore platforms, the unit cost per barrel for extracting oil from British waters, known as the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), has gone up four-fold over the past decade.

via BBC News – 'Worrying' decline in oil and gas production.



More Peak Car
August 18, 2013, 10:56
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , ,

It’s not about efficiency.

Has Motorization in the US Peaked? Part 2 — Sivak (pdf).

sivakchart



Exploding Oil sparks concerns about what sparked exploding oil

Kind of makes the unsourced story about LPG cars seem like a fake-out.

According to Bloomberg, Enbridge Inc., Tesoro Corp., and True companies all won the approval of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to refuse oil that had high levels of hydrogen sulfide, a highly flammable gas that can be a byproduct of oil production, after they started seeing oil with concentrations tens and even hundreds of times higher than what regulators have deemed safe for exposure. The danger of these elevated levels of gas in the oil was thrown into stark relief on July 6, when an unmanned, runaway train crashed carrying 72 cars of oil. Five of them exploded, killing 47.

via Exploding Oil Sparks Concerns From Railway and Pipeline Companies | Mother Jones.



U.S. oil demand rising again

Via EIA Week in Review.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 19.7 million barrels per day, up by 3.7 percent from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 11.1 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 1.6 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.



Light Vehicle Sales
August 2, 2013, 01:59
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

via Calculated Risk:

VehicleSalesJuly2013



Egypt in the red
July 28, 2013, 11:25
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

via Energy Export Databrowser:

egyptinthered



Texas Oilfield Town Runs Out of Water
June 7, 2013, 09:23
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

Yeah, that’s what happens.

Barnhart, a small community in West Texas, has run out of water.

[…]

About 30 communities statewide could run out of water by the end of the year, according to a list compiled by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

via West Texas Oilfield Town Runs Out of Water | The Texas Tribune.



Track Record

Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:

Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61

[…]

So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …

via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.



Air Cargo

Trending down.

aircargovolgrowthchart

Via Macronomics:

Macronomics: Air Traffic is pointing to additional economic activity weakness.



What IEA says

IEA… Not a good track record with the predictions. Doesn’t stop ’em from throwing out new crazy numbers every year.

While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

via IEA – May:- Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets.



NPR repeats false fracking narratives

As NPR’s Tom Gjelten reports:

“Petroleum engineers have always known about the untapped underground oil in the United States, but it was unreachable, trapped in tight shale rock. Then the engineers figured out how to crack the rock. Hydraulic fracturing — fracking — got that ‘tight oil’ finally flowing in places like North Dakota.”

via Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR.

Wrong, Tom. The tight oil has been ‘reachable’ for several decades, it was just such an expensive process that it made no sense to do it when oil was cheap — a money-losing proposition. Now, all the cheap oil is gone, and out comes the ‘unconventional’ oil.

Gjelten also said that the decline in oil consumption in the US was due to efficiency (check the VMT chart Tom). There was no mention of depletion of existing fields, or the striking decline rate of fracked shale wells. And he reported that cheaper oil is just over the horizon.

Would it hurt Mr. Gjelten to do just a tiny bit of research on the topic of his reports so he doesn’t sound like a complete idiot?



The Carbon Fallacy

Chris Martenson, smart about energy, busts the O administration for its disingenuous claims about lowering carbon emissions with natural gas:

To claim credit for lowered carbon emissions due to natural gas and then also support the idea of exporting LNG (where fully 25% of the base energy is combusted in order to simply liquefy the product) is hypocritical. These are two ideas that work against each other.  Either you use natural gas wisely and efficiently as you move away from coal resources and claim a carbon credit for these actions, or you support throwing 25% of natural gas’ energy right into the atmosphere just to cool it for transport.  

So it’s a fallacy to imply that exporting natural gas will help lower carbon emissions. In all honesty, total emissions will most likely be higher than otherwise – because let’s be realistic; the most likely path is for humanity to burn up all the natural gas and then burn up the coal next.

Further, where the U.S. carbon emissions have gone down due to less coal being burned, that happy circumstance resulted in Europe doing exactly the opposite:

[…]

Does natural gas help to lower carbon emissions?  No, it merely pushes the carbon emissions elsewhere while the U.S. feasts on relatively cheap natural gas domestically.  The only thing that lowers carbon emissions is NOT burning coal, natural gas, or petroleum – collectively.

via The Obama Administration's Policy on LNG Makes No Energy Sense | Peak Prosperity.



Total Vehicle Sales since 1976

In the US that is. Includes large trucks.

lvsfred
click to enlarge



Public disagreements

Even in a totalitarian government they can’t get their stories together.

“Saudi Arabia’s national production management scheme is set to increase total capacity to 15 million barrels per day and have an export potential of 10 [million] barrels per day by 2020,” Prince Faisal, a former Saudi ambassador to the US and UK said in a speech at the Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs of Harvard University. The speech was delivered last week and posted on the centre’s website late Monday.

The prince clarified his position in an email on Tuesday. “Saudi consumption may reach five million barrels of oil by then [2020], hence the production capacity of fifteen million barrels,” is required to maintain country’s export potential, he said.

Saudi Arabia would be lucky to go past production of 9 million barrels a day by 2020 and, “we don’t see anything like 15 million barrels a day before 2030, 2040,” said Naimi in an appearance at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC Tuesday.

via Rift emerges over Saudi oil policy | GulfNews.com.

Notice in this article and others how any potential increase or decrease in Saudi oil production is always portrayed as a matter of policy, not geology.