Industrialized Cyclist Notepad

China will consume an increasing share of available oil exports

“China is importing an increasing amount of crude, which is the most crucial issue for the country’s energy supply,” said Zhang during the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference

And the most crucial issue for the world’s energy supply too.

One way to look at it is that we in the west are being outbid by people in Asia for available oil exports. The price is high because if it were any lower people would want to consume more than can currently be produced.

via China depends more on overseas oil |Economy |

Who Owns the Tar Sands?

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Dan Yergin suggested we consider Canada as “not a foreign country,” thus oil from Canada is just like oil produced within the United States. Voila! Turns out oil from Canada is not even like oil from Canada.

The Five Anxious Dwarves

Interesting piece by Andrew McKillop.

At the current time there is no sign that either of these Nice Theory solutions coming about in the real world, unless we try the conspiracy theory that the OECD group, led by the US, Europe and Japan voluntarily sabotaged their economies in 2008 – to save oil !

 Annual growth of oil demand by China, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil, Turkey and other nonOECD, large population, oil importing industrialising countries could hit as much as 1.75 Mbd each year, under 2004-2007 global economic conditions. Not even 2 years of that growth would send oil prices right off the top of the graph. Even with continued slow oil demand growth by the OECD group, or recession-driven decline of their demand … global oil demand can easily bounce.

We can simply note that dependable Peak Oil denial from playful flyweights like Dan Yergin or oil industry stalwarts like former CEO Lee Raymond and E&P chief Jon Thompson of ExxonMobil, or Christophe de Margerie of Total has problems staying on track. The real bottom line on global oil production is increasingly heard:  world oil output will very likely never achieve more than around 90 Mbd on a short-life basis, before terminal decline sets into operation. The only upside is that necessarily more expensive shale oil, and necessarily expensive GTL (oil from gas) may smooth the downslope.

Today’s IEA forecast for global average daily demand in 2012 is about 89.9 Mbd.

via The Magical Decline Of Crude Oil Demand :: The Market Oracle

The Yergin Gap

Chart by Jeffrey Brown (aka “westtexas”).