Industrialized Cyclist Notepad

Hurricane likelihood will be slightly below average this year, CSU predicts

From Colorado State University hurricane predictors (pdf):

Information obtained through May 2012 indicates that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have slightly less activity than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2012 will have about 5 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 50 named storm days (average is 49.1), 18 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 4 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 90 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2012 to be approximately 90 percent of the long-term average. We have increased our numbers slightly from our early April forecast, due largely to our uncertainty as to whether an El Niño will develop later this summer and to marginal Atlantic basin conditions. A brief update on El Niño conditions may be issued prior to the next forecast update on August 3 if conditions warrant.

This forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. Overall, conditions are expected to lead to a slightly below-average hurricane season.


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