Industrialized Cyclist Notepad

The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets

What have we learned so far?

A paper by Fatthouh, Kilian and Mahadeva (pdf)

Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.

TransCanada will build Gulf Coast leg of Keystone XL
February 27, 2012, 18:26
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Doesn’t need fed approval for that.

TransCanada said Monday that a 700,000 barrel-per-day Gulf Coast leg originally part of the Alberta-to-Texas Keystone XL proposal is now a separate $2.3-billion US project that doesn’t require a cross-border presidential permit. Obama denied Keystone XL a construction permit in January, following a delay of the project last November caused by an extension of U.S. environmental review.

The link between an oversupplied Oklahoma oil storage hub and the world’s largest refining market in Texas will help relieve a glut in crude supply in the U.S. Midwest upon startup in mid to late 2013, the company said.

via Update: TransCanada has “significant” commercial support for Gulf Coast pipeline: executive — Calgary Herald.

EIA’s latest oil price prediction


Consider in light of their historical track record, which has … not been good.