Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Track Record

Via Kurt Cobb in the CS Monitor:

Back in the year 2000, the IEA divined that by 2010, liquid fuel production worldwide would reach 95.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). The actual 2010 number was 87.1 mbpd. The agency further forecast an average daily oil price of $28.25 per barrel (adjusted for inflation). The actual average daily price of oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2010 was $79.61

[…]

So, what made the IEA so sanguine about oil supply growth in the year 2000? It cited the revolution taking place in deepwater drilling technology which was expected to allow the extraction of oil supplies ample for the world’s needs for decades to come. But, deepwater drilling has turned out to be more challenging than anticipated and has not produced the bounty the IEA imagined it would. …

via When oil forecasts get it wrong – CSMonitor.com.



Hamilton on the future of U.S. shale oil

Throwing a little cold water on some recent, loudly reported unscientific predictions. When you read Hamilton, always be sure to read the comments by Jeffrey Brown for an important Big Picture view.

In addition to the uncertainties noted above about extrapolating historical production rates, the rate at which production declines from a given well over time is another big unknown. Another key point to recognize is the added cost of extracting oil from tight formations. West Texas Intermediate is currently around $85/barrel. With the huge discount for Canadian and north-central U.S. producers, that means that producers of North Dakota sweet are only offered $61 a barrel. Tight oil is not going to be the reason that we return to an era of cheap oil, for the simple reason that if oil again fell below $50/barrel, it wouldn’t be profitable to produce with these methods. Nor is tight oil likely to get the U.S. back to the levels of field production that we saw in 1970. But tight oil will likely provide a source of significant new production over the next decade as long as the price does not fall too much.

via Econbrowser: Shale oil and tight oil.



EIA’s latest oil price prediction

Via http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm

Consider in light of their historical track record, which has … not been good.



James Hamilton on crude oil and gas prices

My rule of thumb has been that for every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of crude oil, U.S. consumers are likely to pay 2-1/2 more cents for a gallon of gasoline.

Hamilton points to the lack of adequate pipeline infrastructure in the US to explain the gap between Brent and WTI.

via http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/02/crude_oil_and_g.html



Interesting math from Reuters as Brent tops 120

Crude oil output from the North Sea, home of the global Brent benchmark, is set to fall in March for a third month due to maintenance work and natural aging of oilfields there.

Supply will average 2.18 million barrels per day in March, down 1.4 percent from 2.12 million bpd the previous month, data compiled by Reuters showed on Tuesday.

via Brent tops $120 on Iran, North Sea, Greece | Reuters.

This report was the product of at least four reporters and two editors.



Extended rally
December 27, 2011, 11:03
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