Industrialized Cyclist Notepad


Mitigation
January 26, 2012, 22:18
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A new article in Nature acknowledges apparent peak in crude oil supply around 2005, and associated bits of nasty math, including depletion of existing supergiant fields and sharp decline in shale gas wells. Here’s the citation for the article:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html

Murray and King say “we need to start immediately” to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil. But the effects of Peak Oil are already mitigating us.

via Energy Bulletin:


click to enlarge



Chinese oil demand
January 26, 2012, 06:20
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

…In 2011, was up, but apparently slowing down. The Chinese are using about 9.6 mbd, about half of the American total.

From Rigzone.



Suncor refinery benzene still in the Platte River

From a new article by Bruce Finley in the Denver Post.

Yes, this is Denver drinking water. They don’t even know where the leak is.



Total world energy consumption 1925-1965

…by fuel type.

Via HYDE: http://themasites.pbl.nl/en/themasites/hyde/consumptiondata/perfueltype/index.html

Claimed source is Darmstadter, 1971.



The fruits of propaganda
January 21, 2012, 11:46
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Recent production gains in the US have been accompanied by an all-out propaganda assault, from industry and their pocketed pundits and politicians, to convince the public that (1) water-intensive extraction methods are environmentally friendly, and (2) that the new production associated with it is a “game-changer” that will lead to “North American energy independence” and all that. A quick glance at the numbers shows (2) to be a far-fetched notion at best. Still, the propaganda campaign seems to be working.

This is my favorite massive mis-apprehension out of several published mis-apprehensions populating the papers this morning:

“Gas prices are holding steady thanks to the fact that North American production of crude oil is expected to hit an all-time high within the next five years …”

That little un-checked nugget from Michael Vaughn at the Globe and Mail..

Leaving aside the interesting question of whether blatant mis-statements like this, which have presumably survived review by editors of major international publications, are deliberate lies or just lazy stenographic journalism — Is the built-up wall of ignorance now too thick and high to get past? It’s a green monster.

Should we try to break down the wall or is it just much too huge? Should we stand back and admire it in all its glory? Should we paint subversive cartoons on it? What?



2011 API numbers

…show US, though producing more and consuming less, still importing over 11 mbd in 2011, with just over 2 mbd from Canada.

Via Oil & Gas Journal.


click to enlarge



Diesel electric trucks
January 20, 2012, 05:00
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From a presentation (pdf) by Oshkosh.


click to enlarge



Downhill racers: supply versus demand

IEA forecasts flat global oil demand for 2012.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=114374&hmpn=1



Ku-Maloob-Zaap
January 18, 2012, 23:45
Filed under: maps, Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

A platform here has burned after a turbocharger caught fire and the well has been shut in, according to reports.

via rigzone: http://www.rigzone.com/news/image_detail.asp?img_id=1811



Gasoline consumption in the U.S.

From EIA’s This Week in Petroleum.



U.S. average gasoline price chart, 6 years

Via Calculated Risk.


click to enlarge

We almost always ramp up the price in the spring.



Couldn’t help noticing that your “outlook” graph has a ditch in the middle
January 14, 2012, 14:53
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These projections are looking sillier and sillier in graphic form.

This is what Hope looks like via EIA:

Of course there is also a ditch over on the left side of the graph, which breeds hope for the future among fans of energy use. But we came out of that ditch with Alaskan and N. Sea oil, and more Saudi oil. This time, we expect cooked sand and “tight oil” to pull us out of the total energy ditch?



2011: ‘Odd year’ for oil
January 7, 2012, 15:00
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He said, “Any disappointments on the demand side have on average been outweighed by disappointments on the supply side, and in particular the spectacular deceleration in non-OPEC supply after the first quarter started off on a strong note with non-OPEC supply in January increasing by almost 1 million b/d, continuing the momentum seen across the fourth quarter of 2010.” Despite strong growth in production of unconventional liquids, non-OPEC supply growth virtually ground to a halt. Horsnell blamed underperformance in the North Sea, technical issues in Brazil and Azerbaijan, decline rates in China, fires in Canada, strikes in Kazakhstan, and geopolitical disruptions in Sudan, Yemen, and Syria.

“The only bright spot has been the US where the momentum in oil shales has continued to tick higher, helping offset some of the weakness from the rest of the world,” he said.

via 2011: 'Odd year' for oil – Oil & Gas Journal.

Could be what Peak Oil looks like.



Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says Rech
January 5, 2012, 11:57
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

Q: What do you foresee? Let’s begin with the non-OPEC producers (which represent 58% of production and 23% of global reserves).

Rech: Outside OPEC, things are clear: of 40 million barrels per day (mb/d) of conventional petroleum extracted from existing fields, we face an annual decline on the order of 1 to 2 mb/d.

via Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency | Oil Man.

Roughly 5% annual decline in conventional supply ongoing.



Protests in Nigeria after gov’t ends fuel subsidy
January 3, 2012, 10:59
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Gas prices more than doubled overnight. There were other frustrations behind the protests, for instance lack of freedom, truth and justice.

Protest turns violent in Nigeria’s megacity after gov’t ends cherished fuel subsidy – The Washington Post.



This has me worried: George Will calls for no apocalypse in 2012
January 2, 2012, 20:13
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Will’s latest offering — “America’s Oil Boom” — seems designed to perpetuate confusion about the export surplus in petroleum products, which Will does not ascribe to economic depression, unemployment and the substantial drop in miles traveled, but to “abundance.” I suspect he misunderstands the issue even as he attempts to obscure it.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/america_oil_boom_QjesmvVN0KSzpXd7e43APO?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=

He may be right about the insidious nature of “progressives,” whoever they are. But what if there really is energy scarcity. Can Will and his fellow obscurants successfully blame that on “progressives” as well? They’re going to give it a good try.



Mexican oil production still falling, not as fast

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pemex-oil-output-slips-for-7th-year-2011-12-31



I believe in science
December 31, 2011, 04:58
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , ,

Found myself in strong agreement with this blog post from Tom Murphy.



Extended rally
December 27, 2011, 11:03
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Saudis move into solar
December 24, 2011, 00:13
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Saudi Arabia is paying a heavy price for its continued reliance on oil to generate electricity. Its power plants consume 800,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent, Ziyad Al Shiha, the executive director of Saudi Aramco Power Systems, told reporters in May. With the price of crude above US$100 a barrel on international markets, the opportunity cost is high, making investments in alternative sources of power more attractive.

via Saudis kicking off major move into solar – The National.




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